Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 8.400194 9.644407 10.985702 12.536213 14.276129 16.165220 18.368336
2026-01-25 6.543112 8.217866 10.165037 12.584223 15.496278 18.875013 23.077329
2026-02-01 5.604477 7.460468 9.725566 12.670855 16.374234 20.849293 26.635668
2026-02-08 4.811350 6.754749 9.233320 12.590666 16.978734 22.473665 29.822801
2026-02-15 4.191962 6.169486 8.791319 12.471524 17.444850 23.865354 32.701631
2026-02-22 3.755089 5.769409 8.535546 12.544504 18.125414 25.526646 35.971193
2026-03-01 3.475471 5.551110 8.492761 12.879184 19.147787 27.659223 39.935520
2026-03-08 3.083488 5.122626 8.105891 12.682840 19.396218 28.725833 42.473230
2026-03-15 2.657845 4.595499 7.522795 12.143871 19.099770 28.990902 43.875298
2026-03-22 2.502900 4.474157 7.532586 12.475444 20.074929 31.084763 47.936608
2026-03-29 2.343003 4.327003 7.486039 12.708841 20.903884 32.990308 51.791776
2026-04-05 2.132230 4.072951 7.246808 12.617762 21.221885 34.143222 54.574306
2026-04-12 1.929897 3.817188 6.989609 12.487267 21.481618 35.237716 57.348329
2026-04-19 1.773361 3.626775 6.824983 12.493659 21.953537 36.671287 60.692532
2026-04-26 1.649707 3.482632 6.724780 12.594247 22.572263 38.344921 64.455238
2026-05-03 1.508982 3.291605 6.526029 12.509461 22.874349 39.524045 67.482316
2026-05-10 1.377997 3.105341 6.319345 12.392731 23.108756 40.593956 70.364253
2026-05-17 1.285740 2.986235 6.224645 12.464698 23.661269 42.192273 74.141003
2026-05-24 1.234858 2.946460 6.274088 12.797723 24.677608 44.586469 79.288991
2026-05-31 1.123889 2.768879 6.046035 12.602399 24.750282 45.406389 81.872500
2026-06-07 0.985730 2.517112 5.652067 12.066472 24.180066 45.108908 82.573821
2026-06-14 0.951672 2.492949 5.709578 12.396178 25.193820 47.552196 87.965584
2026-06-21 0.909766 2.446521 5.717659 12.628275 26.035502 49.724445 92.963417